The Road to Belém: COP30 President on Trump, Trade, and What Comes Next

On the day I spoke by phone with André Corrêa do Lago, the newly appointed head of this year's United Nations climate conference, countries worldwide faced a deadline to publish new plans to tackle climate change. By that evening, only 13 had done so.

It’s a startling number. The deadline applied to all 195 nations signed up to the Paris climate agreement. And it underscores the uphill challenge facing Corrêa do Lago, a Brazilian diplomat who previously served as the country’s chief climate negotiator. His job: to help foster collaboration and bring about fresh agreement in a world riven by populist nationalists intent on driving climate change down the global priority list.

“I naturally believe very much in multilateralism, and we believe that the only way of solving important issues is through cooperation,” Corrêa do Lago told me from Rio de Janeiro, as he prepares to host what will be the thirtieth such meeting—hence the name COP30—in the Amazonian city of Belém this November. “But the international context is quite complex.”

Central to the “complex” road ahead for him is the U.S. and the new Trump Administration, which he diplomatically called “challenging.” Back in power in Washington D.C., Trump has once again initiated the process to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, and it remains unclear what presence—if any—the country will have at UN climate talks. “We have to wait a little to see some of the directions that these policies are going to take,” Corrêa do Lago says of the U.S.

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He does however remain optimistic about preventing further withdrawals from the Paris accord. Unlike traditional treaties, he notes, Paris relies on voluntary commitments rather than enforcement mechanisms. While some critics view this as a weakness, he argues it actually discourages withdrawal: countries gain little by leaving but risk facing trade barriers from climate-conscious partners. He has previously said that Argentina withdrawing from the Paris Agreement would threaten the joint trade deal between the European Union and Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay. 

Indeed, trade is a key area of contention. Many developing and emerging market countries have expressed concern over the European Union’s measure to charge a carbon fee on certain imports. U.S. tariffs, and the threat of more to come, on longtime allies and rivals have also put a spotlight on the topic. Thus far, trade has played a largely peripheral role in UN climate negotiations, though last year Brazil and others sought to elevate it on the agenda. Corrêa do Lago cited it very early in our conversation as a key point of contention for countries and said that “starting to build some consensus on some of the issues of trade” would be “extremely important.”

Underlying such concerns is what for proponents of global action on climate change, such as Corrêa do Lago, is a sobering reality: the costs of climate policy, both real and perceived, have slowed progress in many places as voters turn to populist politicians who oppose multilateral action–and in some cases, outright deny the realities and consequences of a changing climate.  

To help keep momentum alive, Corrêa do Lago says he wants to refocus attention on not just solving the climate conundrum, but also, in a sense, selling its benefits. “This transition has to be dealt with in a rational way,” he says. “There are challenges for many sectors, and it can even eliminate many jobs… we have to make sure that we can convince people that this can bring very positive impacts.”

Convincing people–and convincing companies

Part of that involves courting what has become an increasingly important constituency for climate leaders: the private sector. The role of business has become ever more prominent at UN climate conferences in recent years as the focus of climate talks has shifted to implementation. And Corrêa do Lago says there will be a substantial role for the private sector this year, too. “We want to focus on solutions,” he says. “And probably most of the solutions come from the private sector.”

The first challenge here will be making the private sector feel welcome–quite literally. Choosing Belém to host the conference—a remote city with limited accommodations and infrastructure—has led some beyond Brazil to ask whether the city will be able to support a big corporate turnout. Corrêa do Lago reassured companies that the hosts would facilitate the presence of industry. “We want the private sector to have an absolutely central role,” he says. “And we will make sure that the private sector will have accommodations and will be very welcome.”

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Nonetheless, he acknowledged that the location would make the COP different from many of recent predecessors. “The symbolism of doing the COP in the Amazon, President Lula believes and I totally agree, is much more important than the infrastructure difficulties that may arise from it,” he says. 

The COP president job is a slog. For the next several months, Corrêa do Lago will hit the road traveling around the world to meet with key stakeholders sounding out positions and trying to build consensus. And yet the job has never been more urgent with global temperatures topping the 1.5°C goal laid out by the Paris Agreement and a slew of devastating climate linked events signaling the future we have in store.